The Power of A

Despite the seeming setback dealt to the Democrats comprehensive health care reform efforts this weekend by Senator Lieberman (I-CT) and Ben Nelson (D-NE), Senate Democrats are planning a procedural move to set-up a December 23 vote on their health care legislation and have indicated they are close to 60 votes.

Over the weekend, Senator Lieberman publicly stated he would not vote for a bill with a “public option” or the compromise “Medicare buy-in” provision; that left the Democratic caucus with less than 60 votes needed to pass the bill over a filibuster.  However, after a closed-door caucus meeting and a meeting with the president, the Democratic leadership is moving forward with a bill without a public option or Medicare buy-in and expects to have 60 Senators voting for the legislation.

Senate journalists expect Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) to announce the final bill’s language today, have the Senate debate and vote on the Defense Department appropriations bill the rest of the week, and file for cloture on the health care bill Friday.  This would set up the chamber procedurally for a vote as early as the 23^rd.

A few outstanding issues remain:

-          The Congressional Budget Office has not yet released a revised score of the Senate legislation, but that score is expected to be released today.  Some fiscally conservative Democratic Senators have said they will not publicly support the bill until they see that the legislation does not increase the deficit.

-          Senator Ben Nelson, Senator Reid, Senator Robert Casey (D-PA) and the White House are continuing to negotiate over the abortion language in the bill.  An amendment offered by Nelson on abortion was defeated last week, but he has withheld support until the issue is resolved.  The expected compromise will likely include strict segregation of what funds insurance companies can use to cover abortion, as well as subsidies and financial support for a series of pregnant women support programs.

-          Some of the chamber’s public-option supporters have publicly expressed their discontent with a bill lacking a government-run insurance offering.  What remains to be seen is if any of these Senators will vote against a bill without a public option.

Quick Hits

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Cooper/CBS

What was last week touted as a potential breakthrough for the Senate health care bill is today being labeled as potentially another failed compromise.  Yesterday, Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT) publicly stated that a health care bill which would extend Medicare coverage to people over the age of 55 was legislation he could not support, and he would vote to continue a filibuster on the Senate legislation.

The proposal was floated last week as a compromise/replacement for the public option language in the Senate comprehensive health care bill.  The provision would allow Americans as young as 55 with no insurance to be eligible to buy into Medicare, the federal insurance plan for the elderly.  Additionally, the bill would grant the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) the ability to create a national pool for health insurance by contracting with private insurance companies and offering reduced rates to the uninsured.  The idea is similar to the current health care system for federal government employees.  The expected savings provided by these two proposals would allow the Senate to increase the subsidies given through Medicaid to people at 150% of the federal poverty limit, up from 133% currently in the legislation.

The Senate was awaiting a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) score that could come as early as today - something some Senate Democrats will use as a marker to support the legislation.  However, losing the support of Lieberman would prevent Senate Democrats from corralling the 60 votes needed for passage.  If no Republicans indicate their intent to vote for a Medicare-expanded bill, the majority will need to find a new compromise or pursue reconciliation.

Quick Hits

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